By the year 2021, it is expected that the global online automotive retail sales market will reach $1.91 trillion at a CAGR of 33.70% while brick-and-mortar automotive retail sales market will reach a market size of $4.93 trillion with an estimated CAGR of 3.30%.
Automotive Retail Sales Projections
By the year 2021, it is expected that online automotive retail sales market will reach $1.91 trillion at a CAGR of 33.70% while brick-and-mortar automotive retail sales market will reach a market size of $4.93 trillion with an estimated CAGR of 3.30%. Our research shows that by the year 2021, about 29.20% of vehicles will be sold online and 70.80% will be sold through brick-and-mortar dealerships. Currently, the automotive retail market share stands at 80% for brick-and-mortar and the remaining 20% is for the online retail market.
METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS
To determine the projected growth rate, market size, and percentage share of the online automotive retail sales market and the brick-and-mortar automotive retail sales market, we looked and scoured through various reports available in the public domain such as the KPMG report on global automotive trends, Scotiabank published report on global auto sales, MedCrave, PRNewswire, Reuters, IBISWorld, Statista, among others. While most published comprehensive market reports are accessible through purchase, we were able to estimate and triangulate the numbers as per the available statistics and information available publicly.
Global e-retail or online automotive and brick-and-mortar retail sales
According to a report released by PRNewswire in 2018, the global e-retail or online automotive retail market is expected to record a CAGR of 33.70% from 2017 to 2021. A market report conducted by Technavio estimated that currently, 80% of the total global automotive retail sales account for the brick-and-mortar, which leaves 20% share for the online retail sales. A separate report from IBISWorld revealed that the total global automotive retail revenue was $4 trillion in 2018 growing at 3.3% annually. By volume, the total vehicle units sold in 2018 was 81.50 million.
Online automotive retail sales = $4 trillion * 20% = $800 billion
Brick-and-mortar retail sales = $4 trillion * 80% = $4.2 trillion
If the e-retail automotive market was growing at 33.70% year-over-year, then we calculated that by 2021, this market will be about $1.91 trillion.
- 2018 = $800 billion (from above calculation)
- 2019 = $800 billion * 1.3370 = $1.07 trillion
- 2020 = $1.07 trillion * 1.3370 = $1.43 trillion
- 2021 = $1.43 trillion * 1.3370 = $1.91 trillion
While we were unable to determine the market growth rate for the brick-and-mortar alone, we assumed that this segment carries the same growth rate of the global automotive retail industry since it represents 80% of the market. Using the 3.30% annual growth rate, we calculated that by the year 2021, the brick-and-mortar retail market will be about $4.63 trillion.
- 2018 = $4.2 trillion (from above calculation)
- 2019 = $4.2 trillion * 1.033 = $4.34 trillion
- 2020 = $4.34 trillion * 1.033 = $4.48 trillion
- 2021 = $4.48 trillion * 1.033 = $4.63 trillion
By 2021, the total online and brick-and-mortar market size combined will be about $6.54 trillion [from $1.91 trillion + $4.63 trillion].
Percentage of online automotive retail by the year 2021
The percentage of online automotive retail by the year 2021 is calculated below.
= ($1.91 trillion/$6.54 trillion)*100
= 29.20%
Percentage of online automotive retail by the year 2021
The percentage of online automotive retail by the year 2021 is as per calculated below.
= ($4.63 trillion/$6.54 trillion)*100
= 70.80%
To sum it up, assuming that the market by value is proportionate with the market in unit sales, we could safely conclude that by the year 2021, about 29.20% of vehicles will be sold online and 70.80% will be sold through brick-and-mortar dealerships.
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Tags: automotive retail, dealership, market size, online retail, vehicles sold online, market research, market growth and trends, market size, industry trends
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